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Jey Jim! just thought you'd enjoy this Veritasium piece that comes at exactly what you're saying from proving it with a probability argument, and also elucidating where the experiential bias of the story successful people tell about themselves comes in. I love this piece so much...I can't even count how many conversation I've had where this video gets to the heart of the misunderstanding about the world https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I

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Just watched the video, it was great. I loved the line "being hardworking is important, but it's not enough to guarantee success."

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